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The 2026 IPRF World Championship is this week at Gravestone Precision Shooting, which is just west of Fort Worth, Texas. Shooting starts on Thursday, September 24th and continues through Sunday, September 27th.

The active roster includes 270+ shooters from 24 countries. Here is the full breakdown across all divisions and categories.

Team USA set a high bar at the first two Worlds, sweeping the Open Division and most others both years. But international shooters have been closing the gap. Shooters like Anthony Collie (New Zealand), Nowell Greasley (Canada), and Josef Sixt (Germany) have a real chance to take home gold.

Who will rise to the top of the 2026 IPRF World Championship? I wanted to see the odds, so I built several professional-level statistical models, tested how well they ranked shooters and picked winners at past matches, and used the best one to simulate this year’s World Championship. This article shares predictions for the top 50 and the favorites in every division.

How The Predictions Work

The modeling and testing covered 749 matches and 40,828 individual shooter performances. Each model had different strengths, so I selected an approach optimized for accuracy in identifying the likely top 25.

Here’s how it works: Past scores are the starting point. However, hitting 80% of the targets at an easier match isn’t the same as hitting 80% at a difficult one. The model uses shooters who competed together to help separate shooter ability from match difficulty.

It estimated each shooter’s skill level based on match performances from January 2022 through September 2026. It includes all PRS Pro Series matches, plus 400 additional qualifying match results for international competitors. That includes the Twisted Barrel Precision PRS Pro Series match that finished just an hour ago (9/20) and featured 93 IPRF international shooters.

Recent results receive more weight. Older results gradually fade, especially when newer results become available. This lets a shooter’s current performance matter more than how they shot several years ago.

But older results can be valuable when recent evidence is scarce. Both the 2022 and 2024 IPRF World Championships contribute to the ability estimates for international shooters who rarely compete against other world-ranked shooters. Their scores against established PRS competitors help connect those shooters to the same measuring stick. Those results provide context, although they can’t show exactly how much someone has improved since then.

The final forecast combines two approaches:

1. 94% comes from analyzing individual shooters’ scores, match difficulty, consistency, and uncertainty. Some shooters have a wider range of performance levels than others (less consistent), or may not have as much match history. This takes all of that into consideration.
2. 6% comes from head-to-head matchups and who came out on top most often.

The statistical model estimates each shooter’s ability and how much their performance might vary, based on their historical performances. The computer then plays out the match 500,000 times, randomly drawing plausible performances for everyone each time (called a Monte Carlo simulation). Some simulations give a shooter a great weekend; others give them a rough one. Those results produce the predicted ranks and winning odds. For example, winning 50,000 of 500,000 simulated matches would mean an estimated 10% chance of winning.

How accurate is it? Across 41 PRS Pro Series matches in 2026, this method identified an average of 17.65 of the actual top 25. Its average ranking error among those top finishers was about 11 places. That means this is best used to identify contenders, while treating exact positions cautiously.

Even the highest-ranked shooter has only about an 12% chance of posting the highest score in this model. That means other shooters led in roughly 88% of simulations! Less history means greater uncertainty; 33 of the 270+ shooters lacked enough historical performance evidence for an individual rank. So there are more than a few wild cards who could add to the drama of the match this week.

To be clear, I’m not saying I personally believe this is how the weekend will shake out – but I’m also biased! 😉 This is simply what the objective models say the odds are based on the historical performance data available.

Predicted Top 50 Overall

The ranks below compare the projected scores across the entire field, regardless of division. But, to be clear, the IPRF does not give a single official overall championship title. It awards titles only by division or team.

Predicted Ranks follow their average finishing positions across the 500,000 simulations. Predicted Hit % is the expected percentage of impacts from the total available points, which assumes a course of fire and conditions comparable to the 2022 and 2024 World Championships. Odds of Highest Overall Score reflect how often each shooter finished first in the simulations.

Keep in mind that everyone in the Limited Division must shoot a .308 Winchester, and these simulations account for lower hit probabilities for that division. If the Limited shooters were in the Open division, they’d rank higher in the simulations. The model estimates that a Limited Shooter in the top 50 would see a 6.7 percentage-point increase in hit % on average if they switched to the Open Division (and didn’t use a 308 Win).

Predicted Rank	Shooter	Country	Division	Predicted Hit %	Odds of Highest Overall Score
1	Clay Blackketter	USA	Open	83.7%	12.7%
2	Kahl Harmon	USA	Mil/LEO	82.6%	7.8%
3	Austin Buschman	USA	Open	81.4%	5.8%
4	Francis Colon	USA	Open	81.1%	6.0%
5	Chris Kutalek	USA	Open	80.1%	4.0%
6	Jeff Guerry	USA	Open	80.2%	4.5%
7	Morgun King	USA	Open	79.7%	3.1%
8	Keith Rudasill	USA	Factory	77.9%	1.5%
9	Dale Rhoads	USA	Senior	77.1%	1.5%
10	Nowell Greasley	Canada	Open	76.8%	1.8%
11	Gage Caples	USA	Junior	76.6%	1.4%
12	Lee Pettross	USA	Senior	76.3%	1.5%
13	Daniel Bertocchini	USA	Factory	76.1%	1.3%
14	Josef Sixt	Germany	Open	76.3%	1.7%
15	Anthony Collie	New Zealand	Open	76.0%	2.0%
16	Hunter Zwiers	USA	Mil/LEO	75.7%	1.6%
17	Matthew Caruso	USA	Factory	75.3%	0.8%
18	Austin Orgain	USA	Limited	75.2%	0.6%
19	Nikolas Omland	Norway	Open	74.4%	1.4%
20	Kate Estes	USA	Ladies	74.1%	0.9%
21	Allen Ernst	USA	Senior	73.6%	0.6%
22	Chad Heckler	USA	Limited	73.1%	0.3%
23	Rory Gibbons	Ireland	Open	73.5%	1.3%
24	Logan McGinnis	USA	Mil/LEO	72.7%	0.3%
25	Sam Trevino	USA	Mil/LEO	72.7%	0.5%
26	Dylan Bailey	USA	Junior	72.6%	0.5%
27	Hunter Neal	USA	Junior	72.5%	0.4%
28	Luke McKennie	Australia	Open	72.5%	1.0%
29	Daniel Gibbons	Ireland	Open	72.5%	1.0%
30	Kyle McCormack	USA	Limited	72.0%	0.2%
31	Lauryl Akenhead	USA	Ladies	71.9%	0.5%
32	Reagan Stahmer	USA	Junior	71.7%	0.4%
33	Joe Pask	United Kingdom	Open	71.9%	0.8%
34	Moritz Mayr	Germany	Open	71.3%	0.4%
35	Chase Beckley	Canada	Junior	71.1%	0.4%
36	Jason Aulwes	USA	Senior	71.1%	0.4%
37	Jeff Scobie	Canada	Open	71.0%	0.3%
38	JP Noel	Canada	Open	70.6%	0.3%
39	Grace Vaughn	USA	Ladies	70.4%	0.2%
40	Ashley Pauna	Australia	Open	69.9%	0.6%
41	Fraser Mackenzie	New Zealand	Factory	69.4%	0.1%
42	Etienne Vachon	Canada	Mil/LEO	69.6%	0.4%
43	Joe Thielen	USA	Limited	68.7%	0.1%
44	Michael Bae	Canada	Open	68.3%	0.2%
45	Kris Haughian	Canada	Open	68.1%	0.2%
46	Dirk Sauber	Namibia	Open	68.2%	0.5%
47	Josh Martin	United Kingdom	Open	68.1%	0.4%
48	Ryan McLean	Canada	Open	67.4%	0.1%
49	Aron Hyde	Australia	Open	67.6%	0.4%
50	Oscar Järvi	Sweden	Open	67.1%	0.3%

You may have noticed that the Odds of Highest Overall Score may not perfectly follow the rank or hit %. Why is that? Imagine two shooters: One finishes near the front almost every weekend. The other has more ups and downs, sometimes winning and sometimes finishing much farther back. The first can have the better average finish, while the second wins more often. Our ranking follows average finishing position across the simulated matches. The Odds of Highest Overall Score counts only how often someone beat the entire field in the simulations.

Wider ranges can reflect past ups and downs or limited match history. They do not automatically mean a shooter is less consistent in real life. Honestly, the odds between many of these guys are EXTREMELY close!

Favorites In Each Division

Since all of the trophies are based on division, let’s look at who the model believes are the favorites for each one. The tables below show all shooters with more than a 1% chance of winning that division, sorted by predicted division rank.

Open Division

93 total competitors, with a max of 6 from each country. This is the most competitive division, with very few equipment restrictions. Custom rifles are allowed up to .30 caliber and a maximum muzzle velocity of 3,200 fps.

This is everyone the model predicted has more than a 1% chance to win the Open Division.

Odds of Winning Division	Shooter	Country
19.3%	Clay Blackketter	USA
9.6%	Austin Buschman	USA
9.6%	Francis Colon	USA
7.3%	Jeff Guerry	USA
6.7%	Chris Kutalek	USA
5.3%	Morgun King	USA
3.3%	Anthony Collie	New Zealand
3.2%	Nowell Greasley	Canada
2.8%	Josef Sixt	Germany
2.3%	Nikolas Omland	Norway
2.1%	Rory Gibbons	Ireland
1.6%	Daniel Gibbons	Ireland
1.6%	Luke McKennie	Australia
1.3%	Joe Pask	United Kingdom
1.0%	Michael Wilkie	New Zealand

Limited Division

41 total competitors, with a max of 4 from each country. For this division, shooters must use a rifle chambered in .308 Winchester / 7.62×51 NATO with a max bullet weight of 179 grains and a max velocity of 2800 fps. The table below shows the shooters the model predicted having more than a 1% chance of winning the Limited Division.

Odds of Winning Division	Shooter	Country
35.1%	Austin Orgain	USA
22.1%	Chad Heckler	USA
17.4%	Kyle McCormack	USA
8.7%	Joe Thielen	USA
1.9%	Nathan Wiggins	Canada
1.8%	Dan Lévis	Canada
1.2%	Kevin Niedzwiedz	Canada
1.2%	Julian Purton	Australia

Factory Division

32 total competitors, with a max of 4 from each country. Competitors in this division are required to use “a non-custom, standard stock rifle, manufactured/assembled by a single mainstream manufacturer.” Shooters must “compete with the rifle as it comes from the factory,” with only a few specific modifications permitted. There are no price point requirements. The table below shows the shooters the model predicted having more than a 1% chance of winning the Factory Division.

Odds of Winning Division	Shooter	Country
31.3%	Keith Rudasill	USA
22.3%	Daniel Bertocchini	USA
17.4%	Matthew Caruso	USA
4.4%	Fraser Mackenzie	New Zealand
3.5%	Yanick Sab Leblanc	Canada
2.9%	Joshua Maynard	New Zealand
2.3%	Philippe Landry	Canada
1.8%	Jesse Gebhardt	USA
1.8%	Wei Li	Australia
1.4%	Marcus Olsson	Sweden
1.3%	Wade Grinstead-Jones	Australia
1.3%	Saku Suominen	Finland
1.2%	Tyler Beckley	Canada

Military/Law Enforcement Division

29 total competitors, with a max of 4 from each country. Reserved for currently serving military personnel or law enforcement officers, either full-time or part-time, using Open equipment rules. The table below shows the shooters the model predicted having more than a 1% chance of winning the Mil/LEO Division.

Odds of Winning Division	Shooter	Country
55.5%	Kahl Harmon	USA
13.9%	Hunter Zwiers	USA
6.6%	Sam Trevino	USA
5.7%	Logan McGinnis	USA
4.1%	Etienne Vachon	Canada
3.1%	Adam Jernström	Sweden
2.3%	Nelson Drolet	Canada

Ladies Division

22 total competitors, with a max of 4 from each country. Reserved for female competitors, using the same equipment rules as Open. The table below shows the shooters the model predicted having more than a 1% chance of winning the Ladies Division.

Odds of Winning Division	Shooter	Country
32.2%	Kate Estes	USA
20.8%	Lauryl Akenhead	USA
13.8%	Grace Vaughn	USA
7.7%	Tereza T. Helstynova	Czech Republic
6.9%	Payton Grimes	USA
3.2%	Valentina Lanotte	Switzerland
2.9%	Izzi Wright	United Kingdom
2.8%	Solveig Engvoll	Norway
1.6%	Estelle Boon	Canada
1.1%	Kim-Leigh Ferreira	South Africa

Junior Division

19 total competitors, with a max of 4 from each country. Reserved for shooters ages 14–20 at the start of the calendar year, using Open equipment rules. The table below shows the shooters the model predicted having more than a 1% chance of winning the Junior Division.

Odds of Winning Division	Shooter	Country
31.7%	Gage Caples	USA
13.8%	Dylan Bailey	USA
12.6%	Hunter Neal	USA
11.1%	Reagan Stahmer	USA
10.8%	Chase Beckley	Canada
6.9%	Johan Nel	South Africa
5.0%	Luke Anderson	Canada
1.5%	Donovan Cook	South Africa
1.2%	Campbell Guiney	New Zealand

Senior Division

36 total competitors, with a max of 4 from each country. Reserved for shooters age 55 and older, using Open equipment rules. The table below shows the shooters the model predicted having more than a 1% chance of winning the Senior Division.

Odds of Winning Division	Shooter	Country
31.7%	Dale Rhoads	USA
27.9%	Lee Pettross	USA
15.1%	Allen Ernst	USA
9.4%	Jason Aulwes	USA
2.1%	Etienne De Waal	South Africa

Final Shot

Of course, no matter what fancy math models say, it all comes down to impacts on steel! Even if this represents what would happen on average if we shot the match thousands of times, these guys will shoot it once and hand out the trophies.

So, as Clay Blackketter always says: “You just need to have yourself a weekend!”

Congrats to everyone who qualified, and good luck this week! May the best shooters win.

What Is the IPRF World Championship?

The IPRF World Championship brings together elite precision rifle shooters to represent their countries and compete for individual and national team medals. IPRF stands for International Precision Rifle Federation. Competitors qualify through their national associations, so earning a spot is an achievement before the first shot is fired.

The centerfire championship takes place every two years, in even-numbered years; the rimfire championship runs in the alternating odd-numbered years. The 2026 centerfire event is being held at Gravestone Precision in Texas.

For 2026, each country can send up to 30 competitors: six in Open and four in each of six other divisions or categories: Limited, Factory, Ladies, Junior, Senior, and Military/Law Enforcement. Those groups recognize different equipment rules, ages, or eligibility requirements.

The match and stage format is very similar to PRS Pro Series matches where shooters work through timed stages, engaging targets at varying distances from challenging positions. They must manage wind, build steady positions, and hit targets before time expires. Scores determine individual standings and also contribute to national team results.

The latest roster has 270+ competitors from 24 countries, making this a global contest of skill, preparation, and performance under pressure.

The shooting competition will span 4 days. Each team will shoot 2 of the 4 days, and have a rest day between. Each competitor will shoot approximately 200 rounds across 20 stages total.

Date	Events
9/22/26	Vendor Fair, Vendor Demonstrations, Registration (12-5)
9/23/26	Vendor Fair, Vendor Demonstrations, Registration (7-4) + Opening Cermony (5:30)
9/24/26	Competition Day 1 (7-4) + Beer Garden (after last shots fired to 8pm)
9/25/26	Competition Day 2 (7-4) + Beer Garden (after last shots fired to 8pm)
9/26/26	Competition Day 3 (7-4) + Beer Garden (after last shots fired to 8pm)
9/27/26	Competition Day 4 (7-4) + Beer Garden (after last shots fired to 8pm)
9/28/26	Shoot-Offs (8-10) + Closing Ceremony (11-1)

Spectators are welcome to come out and watch the best shooters in the world compete on the biggest stage!

To learn more about the match and related events, visit: https://usprecisionrifle.org/2026-world-championship-1

Watch It Live!

If you can’t attend in-person but want to follow along in real-time, there are some exciting options this year:

• Live scoring will be available through Impact Scoring
• PRS Owner/Director Ken Wheeler will be onsite providing live commentary and video throughout all 4 days of the match directly on Impact Scoring, with other special guests (possibly including me, if I can make it 😉).

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